Money Supply Volatility and the Macroeconomy

by Serletis, Apostolos and Xu, Libo

This paper extends the ongoing literature on the macroeconomic effects of money supply volatility. We use monthly data for the United States and a bivariate, Markov switching, structural vector error correction (VEC) model that is modified to accommodate GARCH-in-Mean errors to isolate the effects of money growth volatility on output growth. The model allows us to study how monetary uncertainty affects economic growth across different macroeconomic regimes.

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