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Identi cation of Static and Dynamic Games of Incomplete Information with Multiple Equilibria in the Data

by Magesan, Arvind

I study identication of games of incomplete information, both static and dynamic, when there are multiple equilibria in the data. In the case of static games, I show that if multiplicity disappears at a small subset of the support of the observables, payos are identied. All the equilibria of the model are also then identied. As payo relevant unobservables are an alternative explanation to multiple equilibria for observed correlation in player actions conditional on observables, I allow for this type of variable and show that as long as a conditional exclusion restriction on the distribution of the unobservables is satised, payos, equilibria and the distribution of the payo relevant unobservable are identied. Additionally, letting A be the number of choice alternatives, N the number of players and K the number of equilibria, as long as AN K, I show that equilibrium selection probabilities are also identied, a result that is useful for considering the eects of counterfactual experiments in the presence of multiple equilibria. I extend the framework to study identication in dynamic games. The static approach extends in a straightforward way to nite horizon (non-stationary) games, but not to the more common case of innite horizon (stationary) games. I show that by making additional testable restrictions on the transition probabilities, a large class of stationary dynamic games are also identied.

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