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Valuing Anti-Piracy Technology in the Motion-Picture Industry

by Walls, W. D.

This paper develops a methodologically sound method of valuing anti-piracy technologies. The method is consistent with the `nobody knows'' principle because it does not rely upon the calculation of a counterfactual `but for piracy' forecast. The developed method is applied in the context of the motion-picture industry to value digital watermarking technology; sample calculations are provided for theatrical box-office revenue, distributor revenue, and home video revenue.

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