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Working Papers

2018-04: Black Swan Models for the Entertainment Industry with an Application to the Movie Business

Walls, W. D. and McKenzie, J.
Success in popular entertainment is highly unpredictable. Yet it is the high-impact low-probability events---known as `black swans'---that drive entertainment industry profitability because success is highly concentrated on a small number of winners. In this research, we apply recently-...

2018-03: Valuing Anti-Piracy Technology in the Motion-Picture Industry

Walls, W. D.
This paper develops a methodologically sound method of valuing anti-piracy technologies. The method is consistent with the `nobody knows'' principle because it does not rely upon the calculation of a counterfactual `but for piracy' forecast. The developed method is applied in the...

2018-02: Analysis of skewness preference for horse track gamblers in Hong Kong and Japan

Walls, W. D. and Harvey, P. J.
Empirical studies of parimutuel wagering markets almost universally find that bettors systematically overbet longshots and underbet favorites. This favorite-longshot bias has been interpreted as evidence of the risk preference of horse track gamblers. More recently the skewness of returns has...

2018-01: Tax Elasticity Estimates for Capital STocks in Canada

Wen, Jean-Francois and Yilmaz, Fatih
We use aggregate panel data for the Canadian provinces to estimate the long-run user cost elasticity (UCE) of capital. The estimates exploit three sources of variation in tax policy: across provinces, industries, and years. The UCE is estimated to be between −0.4 and −1.3 for...

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