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Working Papers

2017-02: How Does the U.S. Natural Gas Market React to Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market?

Jadidzadeh, Ali and Serletis, Apostolos
In this paper we use monthly data (over the period from January 1976 to December 2012) and a structural VAR model to disentangle demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market and investigate their effects on the real price of natural gas in the United States. We identify the model by...

2017-01: 150 Years of the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship

Serletis, Apostolos
We use the longest span data that have ever been studied before (from 1870 to 2014) to investigate the relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity in the United States. In the context of a bivariate (identified) structural GARCH-in-Mean VAR in real output growth and the...

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